This “single biggest predictor of future stock market returns” has fallen sharply – that’s a bullish sign

Chapel Hill, North Carolina – Much of the bull market’s excess has been addressed, according to the “Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns.” This is good news. I’m pointing to the pointer, It was first suggested by the Philosophical Economics blog in 2013, based on the average allocation of a family’s portfolio to … Read more

In a rare sit-down, Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Diamond sees a “major shift in power from employers to workers underway”

Peter Diamond, the 2010 Nobel Prize winner in economics, has kept away from journalism for most of his long and illustrious career, stating that he worries about being misunderstood. Given the opportunity to interview him, MarketWatch jumped at it. His supporters believe Diamond may be the smartest economist. His selection by President Barack Obama to … Read more

Can the Fed Tame Inflation Without Further Crushing The Stock Market? What’s next for investors?

The Federal Reserve isn’t trying to criticize the stock market for quickly raising interest rates in an attempt to slow still-hot inflation — but investors need to be prepared for more pain and volatility because policymakers won’t be scared, investors and strategists said of a deep selloff. “I don’t think they’re necessarily trying to drive … Read more

The next financial crisis may already be ripe, but not as many expect

A growing number of traders, academics and bond market experts are concerned that the $24 trillion US Treasury debt market could head into crisis as the Federal Reserve began its “quantitative tightening” on high alert this month. With the Fed doubling the pace that its bond holdings will “roll” its balance sheet in September, some … Read more

Why this Fed move could be the ‘wild card’ flooding the stock market

Quantitative easing is credited with generating stock returns and boosting other speculative assets by flooding markets with liquidity as the Federal Reserve raised trillions of dollars in bonds after the financial crisis and amid the coronavirus pandemic. Investors and policy makers may underestimate what happens when the tide recedes. “I don’t know if the Fed … Read more